TheMReport

8 | TH E M R EP O RT INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT The Best of Times, The Worst of Times While many housing indicators point toward optimism, some trends are telling a different story. 1 On the Bright Side Lenders are less pessimistic about their profit margins this year, according to Fannie Mae's Q1 2019 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey. Fannie Mae cited stronger demand expectations for both purchase and refinance mortgages. 2 The Homeowner's Predicament According to Realtor.com, 70% of homeowners predict a recession within the next three years, while around 30% of those surveyed expect the next recession to begin sometime in 2020. Realtor.com also noted that 56% of shoppers believe home prices have hit their peak, despite 63% of shoppers reporting that home prices are increasing compared to last year. 3 A Good Time to Buy? According to survey data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 37% of buyers strongly believe it's a good time to buy, up from 34% in Q4 2018. Over half (53%) of respondents said they believed the economy was improving—a slight decline over last year's 59%. 4 The Big "Thaw" Low mortgage rates and a rise in inventory are likely to boost home sales this year according to a Freddie Mac Forecast. The report projected total home sales (new and existing) to reach 5.94 million in 2019 before increasing to 6.14 million in 2020. 5 Withdrawal Symptoms In spite of Amazon's HQ2 with- drawal from Long Island City earlier this year, a Zillow report indicated that New York renters still aren't feel- ing the effects. New York rent prices along with those in Washington, D.C., and Nashville—two markets where Amazon still intends to build large office spaces—have largely followed national trends since Amazon's November announcement. 6 Persistent Declines According to a BuildFax report on home construction, single-family hous- ing authorizations decreased 5.75% year-over-year. Meanwhile, remodels are down as well, with existing hous- ing maintenance volume decreasing by 5.53% year-over-year and remodel volume decreasing by 10.07%. 7 The Trouble With Loan Performance According to a CoreLogic report, 10 out of the only 12 metro areas to expe- rience increases in serious delinquency (loans 90 days or more past due) were located in the Southeast. The impact of natural disasters such as hurricanes are still being felt in states such as North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia. 8 Mind the Gap According to an analysis by First American, the market potential for existing-home sales declined by 2.9% compared with a year ago. First American reported potential existing- home sales at 23.2% below the pre- recession peak of market potential. 9 The Question of Affordability About 40% of the top 50 largest metropolitan areas in the country are categorized as overvalued according to a CoreLogic analysis. CoreLogic expects that percentage to continue growing over the remainder of 2019. 10 A HARP Stronghold A report by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) revealed that nine states and one territory made up 70% of the nation's HARP refinances: Puerto Rico, Illinois, New Jersey, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Alabama, and Georgia.

• Cover