MReport March 2020

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M R EP O RT | 51 O R I G I NAT I O N S E R V I C I N G DATA G O V E R N M E N T S E C O N DA R Y M A R K E T THE LATEST ORIGINATION Should I Stay or Should I Go? Americans are staying in their homes longer, and it is having an impact on the market as a whole. H omeowners who sold their homes during Q 4 2019 owned their homes for an average of 8.21 years, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. This represents an increase from Q 3 2019's 8.08 years and Q 4 2018's 7.95 years. ATTOM. The report states that the latest figure represents the longest-average home seller tenure since Q1 2000—the earliest period where data is available. Connecticut was home to the top-five markets with the longest housing tenures: Norwich (13.49 years); New Haven (13.32 years); Bridgeport-Stamford (13.23 years); Torrington (12.33); and Hartford (12.25 years). Norwich's homeownership tenure rose to 13.49 years from Q1 2000's 5.55 years. Oklahoma City was home to the shortest homeownership ten- ure at 6.16 years. Other markets with short tenures were Colorado Springs, Colorado (6.84 years); Detroit (6.88 years); Austin, Texas (7.01); Denver (7.08 years); Grand Rapids, Michigan (7.23 years); San Antonio (7.25 years); Minneapolis (7.38 years); Provo, Utah (7.50 years); and Chattanooga, Tennessee (7.52 years). Increased housing tenures, according to First American, are negatively impacting the market's potential. First American reported last year that increasing tenure length has cost the market 137,230 potential home sales. First AM says housing is "the most durable consumer good we'll ever buy," and rising home-buying power fuels increases demand. "You can't buy what's not for sale but rising existing-home sales means more homes on the market, helping to meet the grow- ing demand," said Mark Fleming, First American Chief Economist. "While several factors may trigger a directional switch for market potential, the current environment of low mortgage rates and wage growth driven by a strong labor market, supports a healthy housing market for the remainder of 2019." Additionally, that report found that while the market for poten- tial existing-home sales rose 3.8% annually, the current seasonally adjusted annualized rate is 18.6% below the pre-recession peak of market potential set in March 2004. New-home sales fell in December 2019 by 0.4% to 694,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Bureau also reported that November's estimated 719,000 home sales have been revised to just 697,000. December's data represents a 23% year-over-year increase from December 2018 and 2019 saw 10.3% more new home sales than the prior year. African-American Homeownership Rises 8% Are these Q4 gains too good to be true? I nformation from the U.S. Census Bureau's Housing and Vacancy Report found that the African-American homeownership has increased 8% in the past six months to 44% in Q 4 2019—the highest record- ed level since 2012. However, analysis from the Urban Institute says a deeper dive into the stats is needed. The report reference five dif- ferent sources—the American Community Survey; Population/ Housing Vacancy Survey; American Housing Survey; Decennial Census; and the Annual Social and Economic Supplement. The homeownership among those reports fluctuates from 63.8% to 66.9%. "The Census Bureau reports the margin of error for the [Housing Vacancy Survey] at the 90% confidence level. By adding and subtracting the margin of er- ror from the estimate, we can cre- ate a confidence interval in which there is a 90% chance that the true value for the population lies within the interval," the report states. "The smaller the sample, the larger the uncertainty." Additionally, the report says that some of the biggest differenc- es in the Housing Vacancy Survey do not correspond with decreases and increases in the American Community Survey homeowner- ship rate. Urban said the confidence interval on the American Community Survey is smaller because of the large sample size, which is why it is used as Urban's "benchmark" for homeownership. "Measuring the homeowner- ship rate requires balancing the frequency of the estimate and the level of uncertainty you are will- ing to tolerate," the report says. Although it can be difficult to track, the Census report revealed that minority homeownership rate rose to 48.6% during Q 4 2019—a year-over-year increase of 0.8 percentage points. The latest figure is the highest it's been since Q 3 2011 (48.9%). This increase is higher than the gain in the overall U.S. home- ownership rate, which rose 0.3 percentage points to 65.1% in Q 4 2019. The Hispanic homeowner- ship rate gained the most during the quarter—rising 1.2 percentage points to 48.1% African-American homeowner- ship rose to 44.6% during Q 4 2019. The report states this is the largest quarterly gain since Q1 2017.

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