TheMReport — News and strategies for the evolving mortgage marketplace.
Issue link: http://digital.themreport.com/i/125049
The Latest or ig i nat ion ANALYTICS S e c on da r y M a r k e t a na ly t ic s se r v ic i ng The unemployment rate, always a key measure of economic health, has taken on added significance since the Federal Open Market Committee said it will look for a sustained unemployment rate of 6.5 percent or lower before changing interest rates or its other actions to stimulate the economy. Jobs Numbers Make Surprising Jump First-time claims for unemployment insurance ramped up in March, much to the surprise of analysts. F irst-time claims for unemployment insurance jumped 16,000 to 357,000 for the week ending March 23, the strongest jump since mid-February, the Labor Department reported. Economists expected claims to rise to 340,000. Initial jobless claims for the week ending 58 | The M Report March 16 were revised up to 341,000 from the initially reported 336,000. The week-over-week increase in first-time claims was the strongest since mid-February, when filings rose 24,000. The Labor Department recalculated seasonal adjustment factors based on updated history, turning those factors somewhat less favorable than they had been. That said, raw data for unemployment insurance claims—prior to seasonal adjustment—rose sharply for the week, suggesting the increase was real. Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims for the week ending March 16, reported on a one-week lag, fell 27,000 to 3.05 million, the lowest level since June 2008. Continuing claims for the week ending March 2 were revised up to 3,113,000 from the originally reported 3,024,000. The four-week moving average of first-time claims increased 2,250 to 343,000. The moving average, which smooths the volatility in the weekly report, fell for four straight weeks. The four-week moving average of continuing claims also fell, dropping 13,000 to 3,072,500, the lowest level since June 2008. The continuing claims data series tracks the number of longerterm unemployed who qualify for regular state jobless benefits and often shows large movements, depending on first-time claims 26 weeks earlier and legislative changes to state unemployment programs. It is subject to wider revisions than the number of firsttime claimants. Despite the unexpected bump, initial unemployment claims have fallen for seven of the first 12 weeks of the year, averaging just a shade more than 350,000, the number most economists see as the tipping point between a strengthening and weakening jobs market. During the same period last year, initial unemployment insurance claims averaged about 370,000. The last time first-time filings for jobless benefits began a year averaging under 350,000 was 2008. The report on initial claims covered the same week used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for its monthly Employment Situation report. From mid-February through mid-March, first-time unemployment insurance claims fell 25,000, and the four-week moving average fell 20,750, suggesting layoffs will not be a drag on the employment situation report. The unemployment rate, always a key measure of economic health, has taken on added significance since the Federal Open Market Committee said it will look for a sustained unemployment rate of 6.5 percent or lower before changing interest rates or its other actions to stimulate the economy.