TheMReport — News and strategies for the evolving mortgage marketplace.
Issue link: http://digital.themreport.com/i/488965
Th e M Rep o RT | 53 O r i g i nat i O n s e r v i c i n g a na ly t i c s s e c O n da r y m a r k e t ANALYTICS around the u.s. ANALYTICS *Numbers are the percent probability that home prices will decline in the next two years Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. State arch riSk ranking riSk ranking for 2014 Q3* Louisiana Moderate 35 13 North Dakota Moderate 37 35 Alaska Low 20 13 Colorado Low 17 15 New Mexico Low 19 14 Oklahoma Low 27 25 Texas Low 24 17 Wyoming Low 17 15 Alabama Minimal 8 -3 Arizona Minimal 9 6 Arkansas Minimal 2 -2 California Minimal 6 3 Connecticut Minimal 5 -5 Delaware Minimal 3 -2 District of Columbia Minimal 2 0 Florida Minimal 7 4 Georgia Minimal 4 -2 Hawaii Minimal 4 -1 Idaho Minimal 2 0 Illinois Minimal 3 -3 Indiana Minimal 3 -2 Iowa Minimal 2 0 Kansas Minimal 5 -3 Kentucky Minimal 2 -2 Maine Minimal 3 -4 Maryland Minimal 4 -1 Massachusetts Minimal 8 -6 Michigan Minimal 8 -4 Minnesota Minimal 2 0 Mississippi Minimal 7 -4 Missouri Minimal 3 -7 Montana Minimal 3 0 Nebraska Minimal 2 0 Nevada Minimal 2 0 New Hampshire Minimal 7 -12 New Jersey Minimal 6 -5 New York Minimal 9 -14 North Carolina Minimal 3 -1 Ohio Minimal 4 -3 Oregon Minimal 2 0 Pennsylvania Minimal 3 -4 Rhode Island Minimal 3 -2 South Carolina Minimal 4 -3 South Dakota Minimal 2 0 Tennessee Minimal 3 -4 Utah Minimal 2 0 Vermont Minimal 2 -1 Virginia Minimal 2 -1 Washington Minimal 2 0 West Virginia Minimal 2 -2 Wisconsin Minimal 2 -3 National Average 8 1 chance of home Price Decline in 1 Year* In the past several months we saw oil dip to the lowest prices in years. While cheaper oil may be saving the consumer more money at the gas pump, these low prices could spell economic distress for the housing markets in oil-producing states for the next several years. The Winter 2015 Arch Mortgage Insurance Risk Index estimates the probability of home prices being lower in a region in the next two years, and it's clear from looking at the states with the most risk that the health of the oil and housing industries are closely linked. The Impact of Oil Prices