TheMReport — News and strategies for the evolving mortgage marketplace.
Issue link: http://digital.themreport.com/i/567977
Th e M Rep o RT | 57 O r i g i nat i O n s e r v i c i n g a na ly t i c s s e c O n da r y m a r k e t ANALYTICS around the u.s. Source: Arch Mortgage Insurance Summer 2015 Housing & Mortgage Market Review 1-Year Change State riSk ranking 2015 Q1 North Dakota Moderate 38 37 Texas Moderate 32 26 Louisiana Low 30 24 Alaska Low 28 22 Oklahoma Low 26 21 Wyoming Low 23 18 New Mexico Low 22 14 West Virginia Low 12 8 Mississippi Low 10 0 California Minimal 8 -13 Colorado Minimal 8 -1 Florida Minimal 7 -31 Arizona Minimal 7 -9 Arkansas Minimal 5 -2 Hawaii Minimal 5 -5 New York Minimal 5 -24 New Jersey Minimal 5 -26 Tennessee Minimal 4 -4 Alabama Minimal 4 -1 Kansas Minimal 4 0 Connecticut Minimal 3 -13 South Carolina Minimal 3 -3 Maine Minimal 3 -9 North Carolina Minimal 3 -2 Maryland Minimal 3 -16 Kentucky Minimal 3 -4 Pennsylvania Minimal 2 -5 New Hampshire Minimal 2 -8 Georgia Minimal 2 -10 Missouri Minimal 2 -5 Massachusetts Minimal 2 -9 Indiana Minimal 2 -4 Virginia Minimal 2 -5 Ohio Minimal 2 -3 Iowa Minimal 2 0 Illinois Minimal 2 -11 Wisconsin Minimal 2 -3 Washington Minimal 2 -5 Vermont Minimal 2 -1 Utah Minimal 2 -3 South Dakota Minimal 2 -1 Rhode Island Minimal 2 -21 Oregon Minimal 2 -8 Nevada Minimal 2 -22 Nebraska Minimal 2 -1 Montana Minimal 2 -4 Minnesota Minimal 2 -3 Michigan Minimal 2 -7 Idaho Minimal 2 -6 District of Columbia Minimal 2 -9 Delaware Minimal 2 -8 Oil & gas Producing states at High risk for Price decreases O il and gas producing states had better keep their eye out for price declines as they have an elevated risk due to higher home prices relative to incomes. According to Arch Mortgage Insurance Company's Summer 2015 Housing and Mortgage Market Review, oil and gas producing states have approximately a 1 in 2 chance of home price declines. The index model results found that although the national average risk of price declines remains unchanged at 8 percent, states like North Dakota and Texas have elevated risks due to oil and gas exposure. North Dakota and Texas are settled in the moderate risk category, with price declines of 38 percent and 32 percent, respectively. "The Summer 2015 edition of Arch MI's Housing and Mortgage Market Review shows that, while the national average risk of price declines remains unchanged at only 8 percent, North Dakota and Texas continue to have elevated risks due to exposure to the oil and gas sector and higher home prices relative to incomes than in the past," said Dr. Ralph G. DeFranco, senior director of risk analytics and pricing at Arch MI. "North Dakota and Texas are the two top oil-producing states in the nation and remain the most at risk–with roughly a 1 in 3 chance of home price declines, on the outside chance that energy prices fall materially from here."