July 2012

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LOCAL EDITION SECONDARY MARKET Refi Boom Set to Fuel $200B More Originations in 2012 THE MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION REVEALS REVISIONS, POSITIVE MOMENTUM FOR ORIGINATIONS FORECASTS. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA // A surge in refinance applications could propel mortgage origina- tions by more than $200 billion in 2012, increasing to $1.28 tril- lion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The trade group attributed and regular media coverage showcasing 'record low mortgage rates' provide sufficient incentive and impetus for borrowers to examine their current rate." Europe continues to titter as tough austerity measures and low growth rates force seasoned parties out of office in several countries. AS PRICES PER SQUARE FOOT INCREASE. NEW YORK & FLORIDA // In New York and Florida, sellers appear to be gaining an advan- tage in the marketplace. According to data from Manhattan Miami Real Estate, both states demonstrated descended to four months' sup- ply. Breaking down the city's areas, the real estate group reported that South Beach pric- ing rose by 20 percent, Miami Beach pricing by 27 percent, and pricing in downtown was up by 19 percent. Both cities racked up record- making, high-end sales for the first quarter, with a penthouse on Manhattan's Central Park West selling for $88 million. Meanwhile, Miami boasted a $20 million sale at St. Regis Bal Harbour and a $21.5 million sale at the Setai. Though pricing was the tently highlighted that could drive rates down and refis up have materialized, primarily due to market turmoil in Europe," Mike Fratantoni, MBA's VP of research and economics, said in a statement. "Deterioration of the debt situ- estimates—upwardly revised from $1.26 trillion in 2011—to account for a refinance boom sparked by the crises in debt-saddled Europe. "Scenarios we have consis- ation in Spain and Greece and a new regime in France that is a weaker proponent of European austerity, along with slower economic growth globally, have driven the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield down," he added. "Thus, we are projecting lower U.S. mortgage rates for the rest of the year and raising our refinance forecast as a result." The MBA said that it expected refinance originations would amount to $870 billion this year, an amount nearly identical to forecasts from last year. The trade group lowered purchase originations from $415 billion to $409 billion. Fratantoni said the increase primary focus of the company's recent study, its findings also showed a new emerging trend for down payments for for- eign buyers in Miami. Using a practice that's common in Brazil, developers in Miami are now "requiring 50 to 60 percent in progress payments" on a two- year continuum with payment in full due at closing, versus the previous 10 percent down- payment model for those buying pre-construction property. Manhattan Miami Real Estate's Richard Mello explains, "Declining inventory levels has caused multiple bids on certain properties. While multiple bids are not widespread, since many prime neighborhoods now have a shortage of inventory, bidding wars, a boom-era phenomenon, are on the rise." in refinance estimates is "largely independent" of modifications to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). "We factored HARP lending of roughly $100 billion in both 2012 and 2013 into our April forecast, and the HARP share of refinance activity has remained relatively constant over recent months," he said. "However, mortgage rates below 4 percent 78 | THE M REPORT feeds low interest rates by stoking a flight by investors to the safe haven of U.S. Treasury bonds, whose yields fall accord- ingly, keeping mortgage rates low. The crisis in Europe in turn Luxury Market Showing Strength in New York and Miami HIGH-END HOMES GET A BOOST ON THE EAST COAST, significant pricing increases during the first quarter. In Manhattan, per square-foot G-SIFIs Need to Raise $566B Ahead of Basel III home prices rose by 8 percent in the luxury sector, and condo prices were up by 9 percent for the year's opening quarter. Additionally, the company's statistics indicate that the city's inventory level stands at an esti- mated nine months of supply. Miami made pricing headlines as well, with residential prices in the luxury sector increasing by 13 percent on a per-square- foot basis, as inventory levels REPORTS FROM FITCH DEMONSTRATE THE PRESSURE THAT COULD BE PLACED ON FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS WHEN NEW CAPITAL RULES REACH IMPLEMENTATION. SWITZERLAND // Fitch Ratings recently published a report esti- mating that 29 global systemically important financial institutions (G-SIFIs) may need to raise about $566 billion in common equity in order to satisfy new Basel III capital rules by the end of 2018. SECONDARY MARKET ANALYTICS SERVICING ORIGINATION

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