January 2017 - The World's Local Bank

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50 | TH E M R EP O RT O R I G I NAT I O N S E R V I C I N G DATA G O V E R N M E N T S E C O N DA R Y M A R K E T DATA THE LATEST Southern Metros Dominate Top Performing Markets The West's dominance in home price growth is beginning to whither as the market in the South appears to sprout. W hile housing affordability has taken a bit of a hit nationwide as of late, particularly in the West, the South has made some im - pressive gains recently, creating a "new dynamic for the national spread in regional growth," according to the Clear Capital November 2016 Home Data Index (HDI) market report. The South and Midwest ex - perienced over-the-quarter home price growth rates of 0.9 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. The West still outpaced the rest of the nation in the third quarter with 1.1 percent price growth over the quarter, but at the same time, that number represented a decline from October's numbers, which signals that growth may be slowing in that region. Nationwide, home prices grew by 0.9 percent over the quarter in Q 3 and by 5.5 percent over the year, according to Clear Capital. Eight of the top 15 performing markets in November were metros located in the South, according to Clear Capital. The top metro for growth was Memphis, which posted a 2.6 percent price increase over the quarter in Q 3. "Elsewhere in the nation, quar - terly growth appears to be holding relatively steady or even slowing down as fall sales data begins to come in," Clear Capital reported. The median home price in the South rose by 5.7 percent since last year, but the median price per square foot in the top performing markets in the South is well below the national benchmark, accord - ing to Clear Capital. As a whole region, the South averages $106 per square foot compared to the national average of $135. "As the Western region's long- standing housing price growth dominance is beginning to fade, the South is the clear front-runner as we begin to look forward to 2017 for top-performing markets," said Alex Villacorta, Ph.D., VP of Research and Analytics at Clear Capital. "The region hosts several of the nation's top-performing and most talked about metropolitan markets like Dallas, Nashville, Miami, and others. Combined with its relatively low cost of living, the region appears to be gaining popularity among home buyers, signaling a new opportu - nity for investors and traditional homebuyers alike as affordability remains an issue in many other markets, namely those in the West and Northeastern regions." Does Low-Income Housing Affect Property Values Analysis shows no impact on surrounding home values when a low-income housing community is built in most markets. T he deep-set worry that low- income housing has a deleteri- ous effect on the values of other properties appears to have little basis in reality. According to a study titled "There Doesn't Go the Neighbor - hood" by Trulia of the country's 20 least affordable housing markets, low-income housing built during a 10-year span shows no effect on nearby home values. Trulia reported that resistance to afford - able housing development has surfaced in places like San Francisco, New York, and Seattle, where low-inventory and high competition have sparked worries about affordable development. But the firm's analysis of more than 3,000 low-income housing projects built between 1996 to 2006 "found no significant effect on home values located near a low-income housing project, with a few exceptions." Boston and Cambridge, Massachusetts, were two exceptions. Low-income hous - ing projects there had a negative effect on nearby homes in terms of price per square foot—a drop of $18 to $19 per square foot, "suggesting a region-specific market effect for these two geographically adjacent metros," Trulia reported. But the reason could be too-much-too-fast. "Concentrating subsidized housing projects in particular areas such as Roxbury and Dorchester in Boston, or Cambridgeport in Cambridge in a short time period, for ex - ample, might have the effect of crowding out other development activity," the report stated. In almost all other markets, low-income housing seems to have had no effect either way. Denver, in fact, was the only metro where low-cost housing actually benefited other homes. One reason for this could be that parts of downtown Denver around where low- income housing projects were built saw a renaissance in the 1990s, driven by the development of the lower downtown area and the construction of Coors Field. "Some of these neighborhoods in down - town Denver are now the most sought real estate in the metro area," the report stated. "Indeed, neighborhoods such as the Central Business District and Five Points, where low-income housing projects were concen - trated in our study period, outperformed greater Denver in terms of home values per square foot." The important thing to remember, Trulia reported, is that apart from these two wildly disparate examples, the overall truth is that low-cost housing doesn't affect real estate markets much. "These are exceptions to the finding that low-income housing projects largely have no effect on home values," the report stated. "The bottom line for NIMBYs who fear that property values will take a hit when a low-income housing project locates nearby is that their anxiety is largely unfounded—at least in cities where housing is either expen - sive or in short supply."

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