The results for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices have been released and the U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.4% annual gain for November, in line with the previous month.
Also, real home values fell as consumer inflation at 2.7% outpaced the National Index gain (1.4%) by 1.3 percentage points.
Regional divergence persisted, the index said. Midwestern and Northeastern markets led by Chicago (+5.7%) and New York (+5.0%) posted gains, while Sun Belt cities including Tampa, Florida (–3.9%), Phoenix, Arizona (–1.4%), Dallas, Texas (–1.4%), and Miami, Florida (–1.0%) saw declines.
Northeast & Midwest had Strongest Price Growth
Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant commented on the release of the Index.
“According to today’s S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index, home prices rose in November, albeit slowly. The National Index rose by 1.4% year-over-year, unchanged from October. Price growth continued to be strongest in Northeast and Midwest markets, where inventory is constrained. Home prices are lower year-over-year in many Sunbelt markets where demand has pulled back and inventory is back above pre-pandemic levels,” she said.
“Today’s Case-Shiller report reflects homes that closed in November, with contracts typically written in the month prior. Mortgage rates began to fall in October, hitting a 12-month low. Rates have continued to fall and are now at their lowest level in more than three years,” Sturtevant said.
Typically, Sturtevant said, “falling mortgage rates are correlated with faster home price growth, as lower borrowing costs increase home buyers’ purchasing power. In the current environment, however, it is likely we will see both rates and price appreciation fall in early 2026. Would-be buyers have hit an affordability ceiling and they are looking for both lower rates and more price negotiation to get into the market.”
Sturtevant added: “Opportunities for buyers will vary considerably depending on where they are looking. Northeast and Midwest markets will continue to be competitive, while buyers will have more leverage in markets in Florida, Texas and parts of the Southwest.”
S&P DJI said that Cotality continues to have transaction delays from the recording office in Wayne County Michigan, the most populous county in the Detroit metro area.
It said those delays impacted the November transaction data and, therefore, no valid November 2025 update of the Detroit S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index will be provided in this release. There was, however, enough data to calculate a valid October 2025 update.
‘Tepid Period Growth’
S&P DJI said it would continue to provide updates to the Detroit index values for the month(s) with missing sale transactions data.
“November’s results confirm that the housing market has entered a period of tepid growth,” said Nicholas Godec, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “National home prices were only 1.4% higher than a year ago, unchanged from October’s annual pace and still near the weakest showing since mid-2023. This subdued price growth is less than half of the 3.7% annual price increase notched in November 2024. Consumer inflation cooled to 2.7%, dipping below 3% for the first time since August and aligning with its average pace over the prior 12 months. However, home price growth still trails inflation by roughly 1.3 percentage points, meaning real home values have effectively edged down over the past year.
“Regional patterns continue to illustrate a stark divergence. Chicago leads all cities for a second consecutive month with a 5.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%. These historically steady Midwestern and Northeastern markets have maintained respectable gains even as overall conditions cool. By contrast, Tampa home prices are 3.9% lower than a year ago – the steepest decline among the 20 cities, extending that market’s 13-month streak of annual drops. Other Sun Belt boomtowns remain under pressure as well: Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%) each continue to see year-over-year declines, a dramatic turnaround from their pandemic-era strength.
“Monthly price changes were mixed but leaned negative in November, underscoring persistent softness. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, 15 of the 20 major metro areas saw prices decline from October (versus 16 declines in the previous month). Only a handful of markets – including Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, New York, and Phoenix – eked out slight gains before seasonal adjustment. After accounting for typical seasonal slowing, the National Index inched up just 0.4% for the month, indicating that price momentum remains muted.
“High mortgage rates continue to cast a long shadow over housing,” Godec concluded. “Thirty-year loan rates hovered in the mid-6% range during November, weighing on affordability even as they eased slightly from recent peaks. This elevated financing cost continues to cap home price growth. Inflation has erased most nominal gains, leaving home values essentially flat in real terms.”
NSA Index Covers All Nine Census Divisions
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.4% annual gain for November.
The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2%, up from a 1.9% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, up from a 1.3% increase in the previous month.
According to S&P DJI, Chicago reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 5.7% increase in November, followed by New York and Cleveland with annual increases of 5.0% and 3.4%, respectively.
Tampa posted the lowest return in November, falling 3.9%.
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a drop of 0.1% and the 20-City Composite Index fell 0.03%, while the 10-City Composite Index increased 0.1%, the release said.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index reported a monthly increase of 0.4%, and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month gains of 0.5%.
The post Case-Shiller Index Shows Tepid Home Price Growth in November first appeared on The MortgagePoint.
