First American has released the monthly Home Price Index (HPI) Report for November 2025, revealing new housing price trends, activity, growth and more. Experts also offered their professional insight on the current U.S. housing market and what it could mean for the typical American consumer in the coming year.
Key Findings:
- Annual house price appreciation remained below 1% for the fourth consecutive month in November.
- House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for September 2025 to October 2025 was revised down by -0.1 percentage point from -0.2% to -0.3%.
- Median household income has increased 3.1% since October 2024 and 58.0% since January 2015.
- Real house prices are 25.9% more expensive than in January 2000.
- Unadjusted house prices are now 63.2% above the housing boom peak in 2006, while real, house-buying power-adjusted house prices are 11.8% below their 2006 housing boom peak.
In October 2025, housing affordability reached its highest point since the summer of 2022 and improved year over year for the ninth consecutive month. Although that is a positive development, affordability is still over 64% lower than the five-year average prior to the epidemic, but the trend is steadily improving. Rapid home price growth followed by a sharp increase in mortgage rates was the “one-two punch” that caused the most harm to affordability following the epidemic, but it is no longer as effective. Incomes have continued to rise, mortgage rates have decreased from their peak, and price inflation has slowed.
Months’ supply, which calculates how long it would take to exhaust the inventory of homes for sale at the current sales rate, is a crucial parameter that is subtly indicating the rate of house price growth at the moment. A market’s preference for buyers or sellers can be determined by looking at months’ supply. In general, competition is more intense and price growth is more likely to accelerate when months’ supply is limited. The market’s “price thermostat” lowers when months’ supply increases, and price appreciation usually cools, promoting affordability.
“House price growth has stabilized in the low single digits as the market adjusts to a new normal for mortgage rates and a constrained affordability environment,” said Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American. “The new housing market normal is characterized by minimal price appreciation and, in some regions, outright decline. Slower price growth offers buyers a bit of affordability breathing room in near term, and with wage growth exceeding house price growth, affordability is poised to continue slowly improving.”
Top 10 Metropolitan Core-Based Statistical 2 Areas (CBSA):
| CBSA | YoY Delta |
| Pittsburgh | 6.9% |
| Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI | 5.4% |
| Newark, NJ-PA | 3.6% |
| New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ | 3.3% |
| St. Louis, MO-IL | 2.8% |
| Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA | 2.6% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 1.8% |
| Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA | 1.7% |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 1.2% |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 1.1% |
“When it comes to house price appreciation, where the home is matters, as local market performance varies widely. Among the top 30 markets we track, markets with annual price declines outnumber markets with annual price growth,” Fleming said. “Notably, there is a growing divide in price appreciation between markets in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt. In markets where potential first-time buyers can still find relatively affordable homes—including parts of the Midwest and Northeast, such as Pittsburgh and St. Louis—price resilience is more evident. But, in markets where affordability has been stretched, such as Miami and Denver, higher inventory combined with strained household budgets has contributed to falling prices.”
Based on local market sales data, the First American Data & Analytics HPI divides changes in home prices at the metropolitan level into three price tiers:
- Starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution
- Mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and
- Luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution
Price-Tier Highlights for the Top 10 U.S. Metros:
| CSBA | Starter YoY | Mid-Tier YoY | Luxury YoY |
| Pittsburgh | 12.5% | 6.1% | 1.7% |
| Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI | 7.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| Newark, NJ-PA | 3.2% | 1.2% | 5.5% |
| New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ | 0.7% | 0.7% | 11.2% |
| St. Louis, MO-IL | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% |
| Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA | 2.1% | -0.1% | 2.9% |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 2.1% | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
Additionally, the Pending Home Sales Index increased to 79.2, up 3.3% from October and 2.6% higher than a year earlier.
“Pending home sales in November jumped to their highest level in nearly three years, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR),” said Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American. “As a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, the data points to an encouraging pickup in home buyer momentum as we close out 2025. Lower mortgage rates, improved affordability, and higher inventory appear to be drawing more buyers back into the market, with signings posting their strongest performance since February 2023. The West led the way in November, with contract signings jumping 9.2% from October and 2.4% year-over-year to their highest level in more than a year. The surge coincides with softening home prices in the region, where the median existing‑home price fell 0.9% from a year earlier, according to NAR, while other regions continued to post annual increases.”
Overall, the improvement in affordability and the slowdown in price growth can be explained by months’ supply. House price patterns in 2026 will rely on whether demand recovers more quickly than new listings and whether new building can increase supply. The temperature of the price thermostat may rise if supply stays up with or surpasses sales, but if demand exceeds supply growth, months’ supply may tighten and the price thermostat may rise. Keep a watch on the supply over the coming months; it controls the level of home prices.
Note: The HPI report tracks home price changes at the national, state and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes a 12-month forecast. It also includes the industry’s only price tier analysis that analyzes home price changes at the metro level segmented by three price tiers: starter tier, mid-tier and luxury tier.
The post Housing Market Trends & Home Prices Experience Shift in November first appeared on The MortgagePoint.
