MReport February 2020

TheMReport — News and strategies for the evolving mortgage marketplace.

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42 | M R EP O RT O R I G I NAT I O N S E R V I C I N G DATA G O V E R N M E N T S E C O N DA R Y M A R K E T THE LATEST ORIGINATION South to Bring the Heat Austin is expected to have strong year in housing, but coastal markets are lagging. A report by Zillow found expert panelists predicted an average growth of 2.8% in U.S. home sales during the coming year of 2020. As far as the regions that the panelists feel will perform the best when compared to the national average in home sales, it was predicted that the southern areas of Austin, Texas; Charlotte, North Carolina; Atlanta; and Nashville, Tennessee will outshine the rest. While optimism surrounded the South, the panelists showed a pessimistic outlook regarding California, particularly in the most expensive markets in the state, such as San Francisco, San Jose, and Los Angeles. Final percentage conclusions regarding these regions were decided upon by taking the portion of expert analysts that predicted a market to outperform that average and weighing that against the portion of panelists predicting that market to underperform, thus creating a scientific net score. Utilizing a scale of 100, Austin was deemed most likely to see the most home-value growth after receiving a score of 76 (83% of respondents predicted Austin would outperform other markets in the U.S., while only 7% predicted it would underperform). Charlotte, Atlanta, and Nashville received scores of 59, 51, and 49, respectively. Texas and the other regions in the Southeast or Southwest laid claim to 11 out of the 14 markets with positive scores, excluding the areas of Denver, Colorado; Minneapolis; and Portland, Oregon. Of all of the regions, Seattle was the most polarizing among the experts, with the panelists locked in a stalemate of 40% from both sides regarding whether it would shine brighter or dim in 2020. The explanation for California receiving such a gloomy forecast is that from the 10 markets that earned negative scores, where panelists expected underperformance versus overperformance, six hailed from California.

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