MReport February 2020

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M REPORT | 51 O R I G I NAT I O N S E R V I C I N G DATA G O V E R N M E N T S E C O N DA R Y M A R K E T THE LATEST DATA A Housing Market Adjustment (Minus the Recession) With so much focus on a large-scale economic downturn, the industry may be overlooking the possibility of a home price correction. M any seem to be wait- ing for signals of an economic recession, reading into even seemingly positive headlines with apprehension and signs of another recession that mimics that of 2008. Others insist we are not on the cusp of economic doom and are unlikely to see a recession, especially one with such vast im- plications in the housing market as the last. Are we so preoccupied with these broad trends that we are missing something already transpiring? Perhaps this is the case. Daren Blomquist, VP of Market Economics at, said in an article this week, "With so much focus on monitoring for the launch of another economic recession, an emerging home price correction could be taking flight under the radar." Home price correction is already transpiring, and the industry is beginning to see some weakening of the housing market. According to a December report from BuildFax, the chance of an im- pending economic recession peaked in September of last year and was down to 42% by the end of the year. However, home prices are ex- pected to decline in one quarter of local real estate markets, according to the 2020 Housing Forecast from At the national level, prices will increase just 0.8%, while prices in some previously hot markets will decline. Blomquist emphasized that "these local market declines won't be driven by an economic reces- sion or by destined-to-fail mort- gage products, but by migration patterns triggered in large part by buyers chasing affordability—a trend that was already evident in 2019." Already, 13% of local markets posted annual price declines in Q 3 2019, according to's analysis of data from ATTOM

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