MReport November 2022

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38 | M R EP O RT O R I G I NAT I O N S E R V I C I N G DATA G O V E R N M E N T S E C O N DA R Y M A R K E T THE LATEST ORIGINATION Share of Homes for Sale Tops 2020 Levels Home shoppers in October saw monthly mortgage payments that were roughly $1,000 higher year over year, according to A ctive listings soared 33.5% year over year to the highest level since 2020, data from the Re- Monthly Housing Trends Report for October 2022 suggests that fewer homebuyers could af- ford to take advantage of the rise in available inventory, with time on market continuing to climb amid inflated listing prices. Key Findings: • The national inventory of ac- tive listings increased by 33.5% over last year. • The total inventory of unsold homes, including pending list- ings, increased by just 0.5% year over year due to a decline in pending inventory (-30.0%). • Sellers are less active than last year, as newly listed homes declined by 15.9% on a year- over-year basis. • The median list price grew by 13.3% in October and is slowly decelerating. • Time on market was 51 days, six days more than last year, but 20 days less than typical pre-pandemic levels. As inventory of homes that actively listed for sale continued to grow, this growth in active inventory was primarily due to the typical home spending more time on the market than last year, as seller sentiment remained scarce, and fewer homes were listed compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, overall listing price growth remained within the double-digits but continued to moderate. "As the rapid runup in rates reshapes housing market dynamics this fall, both buyers and sellers are taking a step back to recalibrate their plans. Home shoppers are looking at a monthly mortgage payment that is roughly $1,000 higher than at this time last year, and incomes are rising but not by that much. Combined with asking prices that are still climbing at a double-digit yearly pace, the aver- age American has taken a huge hit to their homebuying power," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for "Still, our data indicates that some aspiring home- owners are finding ways to make the most of inventory conditions, such as by exploring relatively affordable metros. For buyers with the flexibility, relocating to a lower- priced market could help offset higher mortgage costs. There's also a takeaway for sellers in these areas—on a well-priced home, you could still see strong interest from these out-of-towners." 1. Inventory Recovery Accelerates Amid Higher Rates and Moderating Demand I n October, the U.S. supply of active listings grew at a record-fast annual pace and surpassed 2020 levels for the first time, even as new sell- ers declined year over year for the fifth consecutive month. Additionally, pending listings, or homes under contract with a buyer, continued to drop. These trends indicate that October's accelerated inventory improve- ments were largely due to mod- erating buyer demand, fueled by mortgage costs that are rising at a faster pace than inflation and incomes. While some softening in seller participation is typical in the fall, this year's significant new listings declines reflect the impact of home shoppers' diminished buying power on seller sentiment. However, sell- ers may still see strong buyer competition for fewer options in some regions, with inventory still lagging October 2020 levels in the Northeast and Midwest, regions where home sales declines have also been more modest. Nationally, active inventory grew 33.5% year over year in October, reaching the highest level in 24 months. Meanwhile, both newly listed homes (-15.9%) and pending listings (-30.0%) declined year over year. Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, 42 markets posted yearly active inventory gains in October, led by Phoenix (+173.9%); Raleigh, North Carolina (+167.4%); and Nashville, Tennessee (+145.0%). The number of for-sale homes was still down year over year in the remaining eight mar- kets, by the largest amounts in Hartford, Connecticut (-25.7%); Virginia Beach, Virginia (-11.0%); Milwaukee, Wisconsin (-9.6%); and Chicago (-9.6%). On average across the 50 largest metros, no regions saw year- over-year new listing increases in October, with the greatest declines registered in the West (-20.6%), followed by the Northeast

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