Oct. 2015 - Diversified We Stand, Divided We Fall

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TH E M R EP O RT | 51 O R I G I NAT I O N S E R V I C I N G A NA LY T I C S S E C O N DA R Y M A R K E T ANALYTICS THE LATEST Existing-home Sales Solid, But Expected to Slow While rising significantly over the year in July, existing-home sales posted a small 1 percent gain over the month. W hile existing- home sales have experienced solid gains in 2015, reaching levels not seen since before the crisis seven years ago, the rate of increase may be slowing down, accord - ing to data released by Auction. com in early September.'s August 2015 Real Estate Nowcast predicted seasonally adjusted existing-home sales for August will fall between the rates of 5.46 million and 5.86 million annual sales, with a targeted number of 5.64 million. Though that would be a 12.9 percent year-over-year hike from August 2014—the largest year- over-year gain for existing-home sales in two years—it would be an increase of only 1 percent from July. "We may be looking at the beginning of a shift in existing home sales activity," Auction. com EVP Rick Sharga said. "The volume of sales, while continuing to increase, appears to be slowing down. And home prices, which have consistently appreciated over the past few years, may finally be leveling off." The National Association of Realtors (NAR) existing-home sales data for July released on August 20, indicated exist - ing homes were selling at an annualized rate of 5.59 million units, which was a 10.3 percent increase year-over-year and was right in line with the Nowcast prediction for July, which was 5.57 million. The first-time buyer share was at its lowest point since January, however, due to low inventory and rising prices. "Limited inventory of homes for sale—especially entry level homes for first-time home buy- ers—will make it hard for the market to reach higher numbers in 2015," Sharga said. "This is true for both existing home sales and new home sales, where inventory is improving, but still near a 40-year low."'s Nowcast sug- gests the median existing-home price for August will fall be- tween $219,132 and $242,199 with a targeted price of $230,666. That number represents a year-over- year increase of 5.6 percent but a month-over-month decline of 1.4 percent. NAR reported the median existing-home price rose by 5.6 percent year-over-year in July up to $234,000, which was only 5.1 percent lower than its peak and 36 percent higher than the trough. July's median existing-home sales price of $234,000 was in line with the Nowcast predicted range of between $227,170 and $251,082 for the month. The Real Estate Nowcast predicts markets trends as they are occurring weeks ahead of the findings of other benchmark studies by combining industry data, pro- prietary company transactional data, and Google search activity. Home Prices On the Rise Home sales and prices are benefiting from rising consumer confidence and continued low mortgage rates. L ow mortgage rates and stronger consumer con- fidence are driving home sales and home prices upward, according to CoreLog- ic's July 2015 Home Price Index (HPI) Report. The report found home prices, including distressed sales, rose 6.9 percent year-over-year in July. Home prices rose 6.7 percent excluding distressed sales. "Home sales continued their brisk rebound in July and home prices reflected that, up 6.9 percent from a year ago," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "Over the same pe - riod, the National Association of Realtors reported existing sales up 10 percent and the Census Bureau reported new home sales up 26 percent in July." CoreLogic showed on a month- over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.7 percent from June to July. Excluding distressed sales, home prices rose 1.5 percent month-over-month. Nationwide, home prices are still 6.6 percent below their April 2006 peak, CoreLogic said. "Low mortgage rates and stronger consumer confidence are supporting a resurgence in home sales of late," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Adding to overall housing demand is the benefit of a better labor market which has provided millennials the financial independence to form new households and escape ever- risings rental costs." The index showed two states had negative home price apprecia - tion: Massachusetts (-2.1 percent) and Mississippi (-0.8 percent). Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas reached new home price highs in July, CoreLogic reported. CoreLogic predicted home prices, including distressed sales, will rise 0.5 percent from July to August, and national home prices are projected to increase by 4.7 percent from July 2015 to July 2016. "Nationwide, home prices are still 6.6 percent below their April 2006 peak, CoreLogic said." 9:51 AM

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