The September 2025 S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices results have been released by S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI).
“The housing market’s deceleration accelerated in September, with the National Composite posting just a 1.3% annual gain—the weakest performance since mid-2023,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This marks a continued slide from August’s 1.4% increase and represents a stark contrast to the double-digit gains that characterized the early post-pandemic era. National home prices continued trailing inflation, with September’s CPI running 1.7 percentage points ahead of housing appreciation. This marks the widest gap between inflation and home-price growth since the two measures diverged in June, with the spread continuing to widen each month.
Godec added: “Regional performance reveals a tale of two markets. Chicago continues to lead with a 5.5% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.2% and Boston at 4.1%. These Northeastern and Midwestern metros have sustained momentum even as broader market conditions soften. At the opposite extreme, Tampa posted a 4.1% annual decline—the sharpest drop among tracked metros and its 11th consecutive month of negative annual returns. Phoenix (-2.0%), Dallas (-1.3%), and Miami (-1.3%) likewise remained in negative territory, highlighting particular weakness in Sun Belt markets that experienced the most dramatic pandemic-era price surges.”
All nine U.S. census divisions are included in the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which reported a 1.3% annual gain for September after rising 1.4% the month before. The 10-City Composite increased by 2.0% annually, compared to 2.1% the month before. After rising 1.6% the month before, the 20-City Composite reported a 1.4% year-over-year increase.
“September’s monthly performance was uniformly weak,” Godec said. “All 20 tracked metros posted month-over-month declines before seasonal adjustment, with Tampa (-1.0%), San Diego (-0.9%), and Seattle (-0.9%) leading the downturn. Even after seasonal adjustment, the National Index managed only a 0.2% gain. This broad-based monthly weakness suggests that elevated mortgage rates—which remained near 6.3% in late September—are finally overwhelming the market’s supply constraints.
With a 5.5% increase in September, Chicago had the largest annual gain out of the 20 cities, followed by New York and Boston with 5.2% and 4.1%, respectively. With a 4.1% decline in September, Tampa had the lowest return.
“A deeper look at momentum shows clear weakening,” Godec added. “Over the past six months, national home prices have risen just 0.4%, a gain that is only marginal in nominal terms and negative in real inflation-adjusted terms. The deceleration from early-2025 strength has been broad-based, with only seven of the 20 metros—Chicago, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Boston, New York, Charlotte, and Atlanta—posting positive price appreciation over the trailing six-month period. Most Sun Belt and Western markets experienced outright declines, underscoring how affordability pressures and higher mortgage rates have eroded momentum across much of the country.”
In September, the pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices all showed negative month-over-month changes: -0.3% for the U.S. National Index and -0.5% for the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices.
Following seasonal adjustment, the 20-City Composite Indices showed a month-over-month gain of 0.1% and the U.S. National and 10-City Composite Indices reported a monthly increase of 0.2%.
“For context, this represents the weakest annual price growth since early 2023, when the market was absorbing the initial shock of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle,” Godec concluded. “Yet unlike that period, which saw a quick rebound, current conditions suggest more persistent headwinds. With mortgage rates stubbornly elevated and affordability at multi-decade lows, the market appears to be settling into a new equilibrium of minimal price growth—or, in some regions, outright decline.”
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