TheMReport

February, 2013

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The latest ANALYTICS also saw huge vacancy declines (150 bps or more). Vacancy also fell in the apartment market, though the "pace of expansion in apartment fundamentals is slowed," the group says. Vacancy fell 20 bps to 5 percent at year-end, far below the 140 bps and 80 bps declines observed in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Demand growth slowed in the fourth quarter, but the market remained tight by historical standards, with the four-quarter trailing average vacancy rate holding at 4.9 percent—40 bps below the long-term norm. Compared with 2011, vacancy rates were down in 35 of the 63 markets monitored, with markets The M Report | 59 se c on da r y m a r k e t Markets in the suburbs once again outperformed downtown markets, seeing a quarterly decline of 20 bps versus downtowns' decline of 10 bps. The suburban vacancy rate ended 2012 at 17.1 percent (70 bps lower than 2011's year-end rate), while the downtown rate was 12.3 percent (40 bps down from yearend 2011). CBRE also noted that technology, software, and energy-driven markets experienced the largest occupancy gains in 2012. San Jose, California; Austin, Texas; Houston, Texas; and Boston, Massachusetts all saw office vacancy drop by 200 bps or more. Harder-hit markets in California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona a na ly t ic s C ommercial real estate (CRE) remained on the path to recovery in the fourth quarter of 2012 despite slow economic growth, according to a recent analysis from CRE services firm CBRE Group, Inc. The firm measured vacancy rates, availability, and industry trends across the office, industrial, retail, and apartment markets throughout the quarter. Vacancy in offices fell by 10 basis points (bps) to reach 15.4 percent in Q 4, bringing the vacancy rate down 60 bps for the total year. In 2012's final quarter, office vacancy fell in 38 markets, rose in 19, and remained unchanged in six. s e r v ic i ng Releasing commentary and analysis from the final quarter of last year, CBRE heralded progress for the commercial sector during 2013. Or ig i nat ion CRE Remains on Path to Recovery in Alabama, North Carolina, Georgia, Washington, and Connecticut leading the pack in terms of year-over-year declines (more than 100 bps). Markets with the lowest apartment vacancy rates (below 3.5 percent) in Q 4 included Miami, Florida; Newark, New Jersey; Oakland, California; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Minneapolis, Minnesota, among others. "Effective rent growth should remain strong and apartment fundamentals should continue to improve in 2013 as the economy further recovers," the group said in its analysis. "With effective rents now well above their prerecession levels in most major markets, new apartment construction activity picked up in recent months and completions are likely to return to historical norms." In the industrial sector, availability continued to decline for the 10th consecutive quarter. Availability dropped 30 bps to 12.8 percent in Q 4, representing the largest quarterly drop since the industrial sector recovery began in 2010. According to CBRE, industrial availability is now down 180 bps from its 14.6 percent peak in Q 3 2010. Minneapolis continued to lead the decline in availability drop in Q 4, posting a decrease of 140 bps. It was followed by Detroit (-130 bps) and Salt Lake City (-120 bps). Chicago, the nation's largest industrial market, experienced an availability decline of 20 bps, while Los Angeles, the second largest market, was unchanged. Finally, availability declined slightly in the retail sector as retailers "remain wary of taking on substantial amounts of new space." Retail availability fell 10 bps to 12.8 percent in the fourth quarter, a smaller drop than the 30 bps recorded a year prior. According to CBRE, the majority of retail markets recorded either flat or declining availability rates compared with Q 3, though there were a few notable performers: Denver, Colorado; Cincinnati, Ohio; Fort Worth, Texas; Kansas City, Missouri; and Minneapolis, Minnesota each recorded an availability decline of 60 or more bps.

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