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36 | Th e M Rep o RT o r i g i nat i o n s e r v i c i n g a na ly t i c s s e c o n da r y M a r k e t ORIGINATION LocaL Edition sunny days ahead for growth? GSE anticipatES incrEaSE in Economic activity in 2014. WASHINGTON, D.C. // Following a slowdown in activity over the previous two quar- ters, Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group expects economic activity to pick up in the second quarter of this year, bolstered by increases in the housing sector, consumer spend- ing, and business investment. Fannie Mae expects economic growth in the first quarter to come in around 2 percent, but thereafter, the economy should pick up. Economic growth for the year is expected at 2.7 percent, according to Fannie Mae. The housing market is expected to show a relatively strong performance, according to Fannie Mae's chief economist, Doug Duncan, with housing starts increasing almost 20 per- cent to 1.1 million over the year. As foreclosure inventory declines, new home sales will pick up, Duncan says. Overall, "we continue to anticipate that the rise in house prices and mortgage rates will take a toll on home sales and homebuilding activity this year, although some modest gains are expected overall," Duncan said. Fannie Mae anticipates a contin- ued rise in mortgage rates over the year, with the 30-year fixed-rate ending the year at 4.6 percent. The median price for a new home in the first quarter should come to about $281,000, according to Fannie Mae's outlook, while the median price for an existing home will be about $191,000. Mortgage originations will pick up in the second and third quarters of this year and then dip again in the fourth quarter, while the refinance share of the originations market will decline over the first three quarters of this year and end the year at about 36 percent, according to Fannie Mae. Rising home prices are increas- ing household wealth, although consumers are "still rebuilding their wealth following the crisis and perhaps taking on a more conservative consumption pat- tern," according to Duncan. On the other hand, "[f]iscal and monetary policy jitters appear to have waned, and the most recent employment numbers came in at reasonable levels," he stated. 2013 originations down 14%; Wells Fargo stays on top top lEndErS arE Still in Good company. CALIFORNIA // While mortgage origination volumes looked dif- ferent last year compared to 2012, the list of top lenders looked very much the same. According to stats released by Mortgage Daily, residential loan originations were down 14 percent throughout 2013, falling 37 percent on a quarterly basis in Q 4 alone. Part of the blame for the decline can go to rising interest rates, which were up more than a percentage point to the high 4 percent range over the year. In full-year originations, Wells Fargo held on to its top spot, generating approximately $351 bil- lion in loans—about 19 percent of last year's total volume, according to Mortgage Daily. JPMorgan Chase followed up at No. 2 with $168 billion. Also in the top five 2013 lenders were Bank of America (BofA) ($90 billion), U.S. Bank Home Mortgage ($85 billion), and Quicken Loans ($79 billion). Together, the top five lenders accounted for about 43 percent of last year's activity. Looking at just the fourth quarter, the rankings were the same: Wells Fargo ($50 billion), Chase ($24 billion), BofA ($14 bil- lion), U.S. Bank ($13 billion), and Quicken ($13 billion). All five lenders saw loan vol- umes decline quarter-to-quarter; in fact, out of all companies tracked by Mortgage Daily, only Stonegate Mortgage reported an increase from the third quarter. Total mortgage production for the first quarter is expected to be down 14 percent. Wells Fargo, Chase, and BofA also took the top three spots on the servicing side. As of December 31, Wells serviced $1.8 trillion, boasting a market share of 19 percent. Chase was second with $984 billion, with BofA fol- lowing at $810 billion. Fannie Mae anticipates a continued rise in mortgage rates over the year, with the 30-year fixed-rate ending the year at 4.6 percent.