Housing 2024 - What's in store for housing's next generation

TheMReport — News and strategies for the evolving mortgage marketplace.

Issue link:

Contents of this Issue


Page 44 of 67

Th e M Rep o RT | 43 O r i g i nat i O n s e r v i c i n g a na ly t i c s s e c O n da r y m a r k e t SERVICING The laTesT mortgage risk on the rise National index points to high DTI ratios on government loans as today's biggest risk factor. a key measure of lending behaviors shows risk associated with mortgages for home purchases rose in September as housing agencies failed to compensate for high debt-to-income (DTI) ratios. The American Enterprise Institute's (AEI) National Mortgage Risk Index, released in late October by the group's International Center on Housing Risk, rose to 11.43 percent in September, little changed from the revised average of the previous three months but nearly 1 percent- age point higher than a year ago. The risk index measures stressed default rates on home purchase loans, including mortgages purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and those insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Including an additional 232,000 loans added in September, the index covers approximately four and a half million mortgages. In keeping with recent trends, the index measuring risk for FHA loans was the highest, sit- ting at 23.99 percent—nearly qua- druple the 6 percent threshold AEI considers to be stable. Over the last year, the FHA index has climbed 2.1 percentage points. Meanwhile, the newly added VA index had a risk rating of 11.24 percent, slightly below the com- posite index. Based on key risk factors, including credit scores, total DTI, and loan-to-value ratio, AEI says VA loan characteristics make them about 20 percent less risky than FHA loans. Controlling for borrower and loan characteristics, the VA's default rate on 2007 loans averaged only about 60 percent of the FHA rate. "If the FHA were to emulate the VA's risk management prac- tices, the composite would drop to about 9 percent," the group said. The stressed default rate for loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie remained just on the stable side at 6 percent. Out of the number of risk factors at play in September's index, AEI says the standout con- tinues to be the high volume of loans with excessive DTI ratios. Over the past three months, the association estimates 22.3 percent of loans had DTI ratios above 43 percent, which is the cutoff established under the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's qual- ified mortgage (QM) definition. Mortgages qualified for purchase by the GSEs or for insurance by FHA are temporarily exempt from the bureau's QM provision. "FHA is not compensating for riskiness of high DTI loans; Fannie and Freddie are compen- sating only to a limited extent," AEI said. "If the FhA were to emulate the VA's risk management practices, the composite would drop to about 9 percent."

Articles in this issue

Archives of this issue

view archives of TheMReport - Housing 2024 - What's in store for housing's next generation