Housing 2024 - What's in store for housing's next generation

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48 | Th e M Rep o RT o r i g i nat i o n s e r v i c i n g a na ly t i c s s e c o n da r y M a r k e t ANALYTICS The laTesT employers add 214k Jobs in october; Unemployment dips to 5.8% Job growth remains broad-based across industries and company sizes, topping 200K for nine straight months. J ob growth fell short of forecasts in October, but other employment indica- tors showed modest improvements within the labor market. U.S. employers added 214,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. Economists were expect- ing payrolls to increase by 240,000, down just slightly from September's preliminary estimate of 248,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the government revised the numbers for payroll growth in August and September, bringing those totals up to 203,000 and 256,000, respectively. With the latest revision to August, job growth has topped 200,000 every month this year except January. As of the end of October, BLS estimates the national unem- ployment rate was 5.8 percent, down from 5.9 percent to a new six-year low. Economists had anticipated no change. Among the nearly nine million Americans counted as unemployed in the government's survey, an estimated 2.9 million have been jobless for more than 27 weeks, down slightly from September. Over the past year, BLS says the number of long-term unemployed has dropped off by 1.1 million. The number of Americans clas- sified as "marginally attached" to the labor force—defined as those who had not actively looked for a job in the preceding four weeks but who have sought work in the last year—also fell slightly, dipping to 2.2 million after a jump in September. At the same time, the number of people who gave up looking for work climbed, hitting an estimated 770,000. Overall, the labor force partici- pation rate nudged up, though it still remains historically low at 62.8 percent. The drop in the unemploy- ment rate came in the same month that policymakers at the Federal Reserve made the deci- sion to end the central bank's bond purchasing program that began more than two years ago. While broader labor indica- tors (including the U-6 unem- ployment rate, which figures in marginally attached workers and those employed part-time for economic reasons) still show some slack, the direction of the market may spur the Fed to move its timeline for raising interest rates forward. "This is a strong report that suggests the first rate hike is com- ing sooner than many expect," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for Capital Economics. "We expect the Fed to start tight- ening in March next year." October's numbers were in line with estimates released by the ADP Research Institute just a day earlier. According to ADP, the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 230,000 from September to October. Medium businesses, those with between 50 and 499 employees, had the largest month-over-month increase with 122,000 jobs added in October, more than double September's increase of 47,000 for companies that size, ADP reported. Small businesses, those with between one and 49 employees, saw an increase of 102,000 jobs from September to October after adding 93,000 jobs from August to September. In October, 53,000 of the jobs added were in companies with between one and 19 employees, and 49,000 were added in companies with between 20 and 49 employees, according to ADP. "Employment continues to trend upward as we begin the last quarter of 2014, driven mostly by small to mid-sized companies," said Carlos Rodriguez, president and CEO of ADP Research Institute. "October's job growth is the highest since June and the second highest gain of 2014." Large businesses with more than 500 employees gained only 5,000 new jobs month-over-month in October after adding 85,000 in September, according to ADP. Businesses with between 500 and 999 employees added 14,000 jobs from September to October, up from 8,000 added from August to September. This gain, however, was offset by the loss of 8,000 jobs in businesses with more than 1,000 employees, ADP reported. The goods-producing sector ac- counted for 48,000 of the jobs add- ed in October, according to ADP. The construction industry added 28,000, more than twice the num- ber of jobs added in that industry in September. Manufacturing, however, added only 15,000 jobs after increasing by a three-year high of 33,000 in September. Meanwhile, 181,000 service- producing jobs were added in October. The professional and business service industries con- tributed the most job additions in this category with 53,000, while the trade/transportation/ utilities industries expanded by 47,000 jobs. The financial activi- ties industry gained 4,000 jobs in October, which was less than half of September's increase. "The job market is steadily picking up pace," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. "Job growth is strong and broad-based across industries and company sizes. At this pace of job growth, unem- ployment and underemployment is quickly declining. The job market will soon be tight enough to support a meaningful accelera- tion in wage growth."

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