MReport March 2019

TheMReport — News and strategies for the evolving mortgage marketplace.

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TH E M R EP O RT | 9 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT The Future Buyers' Club From millennials to the self-employed, here are the trends defining the next generation of homebuyers and where the market is headed. 1 Better Days Ahead? According to a Trulia study entitled "As Housing Trends Shift, So Does Renter, Buyer, and Seller Sentiment," among home sellers, 29 percent said they believed 2019 would be a better year to sell than 2018, compared to 21 percent who said this year would be worse than 2018. 2 Self-Employed Homeownership Takes a Hit Between 2001–2007, self-employed households had a homeownership rate of 79.2 percent, 13.4 percentage points higher than that of salaried households according to Urban Institute's "The Continued Impact of the Housing Crisis on Self-Employed Households" report. By 2016, the self- employed homeownership rate had dropped to 72.9 percent. 3 Invested in Investment Clever Real Estate's "2019 Millennial Home Buyer Report" found that millennials were 52 percent more likely than baby boomers or Generation X to invest in property, with 9 percent of those surveyed saying that they were interested in renting out new properties for passive income. 4 The Downward Slide The quarterly Arch MI Risk Index determined that, at the national level, home prices have a 6 percent chance of declining over the next two years. This compares to a historical average of 17 percent. Alaska has the greatest probability of falling home prices at 27 percent. 5 Luxury Refinances According to CoreLogic's "Mega Loans: Mortgage Attributes of Wealthy Homeowners" blog post, out of 230 total active "super" jumbo mortgages examined, 75 percent were originated since 2013, refinances accounted for roughly 180 of the total count, and 74 percent of those were also originated since 2013. 6 If You Don't Build It ... According to the BuildFax Housing Health Report, single-family housing authorizations decreased by 3.76 percent year-over-year in December 2018. 7 Finding the Median According to an analysis by, the median income for a first-time buyer is $72,500, compared with the national median household income of $60,700. 8 Buyer Sentiment Shifting The National Association of Realtors' "Aspiring Home Buyers Profile" revealed that 51 percent of surveyed non-homeowners felt that it was a good time to buy in Q1 2019, compared to 47 percent by Q4. For homeowners, 71 percent felt that it was a good time to buy in Q1, com- pared to 72 percent in Q4. 9 Millennials Flock to FHA According to the Ellie Mae Millennial Tracker, millennials have taken steadily larger FHA loans over the past couple years, rising from an average of $170k in November 2016 to nearly $179k in November 2017 and more than $186k in November 2018. 10 Risky Business According to the CoreLogic National Mortgage Application Fraud Risk Index, eight of the 10 cities at the highest risk for mortgage fraud were located in Florida. According to CoreLogic, areas with "relatively high delinquency" could be "more prone to mortgage fraud schemes such as illegal flips, bailouts, and straw buyers."

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