A Peek Inside Successful Lending Shops

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the latest ANALYTICS Analysts say double-digit gains are still in the cards. The number of unemployed people per opening drops below three for the first time in nearly five years. By Mark Lieberman, Five Star Institute, Chief Economist In response to this news, the Five Star Institute is hosting a job forum during the 10th annual Five Star Conference and Expo that will feature more than 12 major firms looking to hire. The M Report | 47 se c on da r y m a r k e t the first six months of last year. Nonetheless, hiring is on pace to exceed full-year 2012 hiring, which dropped off in the second half of the year: 52,124,000 compared with actual 2012 hiring of 51,956,000. The last time full-year hiring topped 50 million for two straight years was 2007 and 2008. The number of people leaving their jobs voluntarily in the first six months of the year— 13,223,000—is 4.9 percent higher than the first six months of 2012, a sign of increasing confidence in the ability to find a new job; although the number of "quits" in June was 2.16 million, down 3.3 percent from 2,233,000 million in May. The number of total separations in June—4,081,000—was 6.8 percent below May's 4,381,000 million as the number of layoffs and discharges dropped. In June, 1,537,000 million workers were laid off or discharged compared with 1,752,000 in May as reflected in the general decline in first-time claims for unemployment insurance. Yearto-date, layoffs and discharges a na ly t ic s T he number of job openings rose 29,000 in June to the highest level in five years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). At the same time, the number of unemployed individuals per job opening dipped below three (to 2.99) for the first time since October 2008. According to the JOLTS report, there were 3,936000 million job openings at the end of June compared with 11,777,000 million unemployed in the middle of the month. The ratio of unemployed to job openings was 3.01 in May. It peaked at 6.73 in July 2009, the month in which the recession officially ended (as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee). The JOLTS data showed 4.201 million persons were hired in June, down from 4.49 million in May. Year-to-date, hiring is down slightly from the first six months of 2012: 26,062,000 this year compared with 26,251,000 for s e r v ic i ng C oreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) jumped 11.9 percent year-over-year in June, the company reported recently. June's data falls short of the 13.2 percent growth projected in CoreLogic's Pending HPI for June. Month-over-month, June's index was up 1.9 percent from May, a full percentage point short of predictions (partially explained by a revision in May data). Out of all states, the five with the highest home price appreciation were Nevada (26.5 percent), California (21.4 percent), Wyoming (16.7 percent), Arizona (16.2 percent), and Georgia (14.3 percent). Only two states posted price depreciation: Mississippi (-2.1 percent) and Delaware (-1.1 percent). Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased in June by 11 percent on a yearly basis and 1.8 percent on a monthly basis. On that list, Nevada (23.6 percent), California (18.7 percent), Arizona (14.1 percent), Utah (13.8 percent), and Florida (12.7 percent) made up the top five states in terms of yearly appreciation. No states experienced yearly depreciation when distressed sales were excluded. Looking ahead, the Pending HPI for July indicates home prices (including distressed sales) are expected to rise 12.5 percent on a year-over-year basis and 1.8 percent on a month-over-month basis. Excluding distressed sales, July home prices are poised to rise 11.4 percent over July 2012 and 1.3 percent over June. "The U.S. housing market experienced robust price appreciation during the first half of 2013, and our forecast calls for doubledigit growth through July," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Despite their rebound of late, home prices remain reasonable in a historical context, with most states near peak affordability levels." Job Openings Hit Five-Year High are down 7.5 percent from the first six months of 2012. Employment and jobs data have taken on an added significance in the wake of the announcement by the Federal Reserve that it would consider pulling back on its monetary policy stimulus once the unemployment rate dropped below 6.5 percent from its current 7.4 percent. The number of unemployed per job opening fell sharply in the construction industry to 6.2 in June—the lowest level since July 2008—from a revised 8.7 in May. While the number of construction job openings rose, the number of unemployed construction workers dropped in June to 825,000, the lowest level since August 2008, when 814,000 construction workers were unemployed. The improving trend is consistent with optimism seen in the National Association of Home Builders' monthly Housing Market Index. Unemployed per job opening edged up to 4.6 in June from 4.5 in May in the manufacturing sector, which added jobs in July for the first time in five months. Unemployed per job opening edged up as well in the transportation, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and "other services" industrial sectors. The ratio fell in the information, financial, and business services sectors as well as construction. The JOLTS report tracks flows within the labor sector, noting hirings and separations by month as well as the number of job openings at the end of a month. It is reported by BLS on a one-month lag. In addition to totals, data are reported on major industry sectors. The calculation of unemployed per job opening is a function of the number of people unemployed, which rose slightly to 11,777,000 in June from 11,760,000 in May. "Unemployed" is a defined term when used by BLS to apply only to individuals who are available for work, out of work, and looking for work. An individual who does not meet all three tests is not counted as unemployed. Or ig i nat ion Home Prices Continue on Fast Track

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