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the latest ORIGINATION Or ig i nat ion s e r v ic i ng Concerns About Economy Not Enough to Delay Sellers I n the aftermath of the federal government shutdown, Redfin Research Center finds home sellers harbor concerns about the state of the economy and declining optimism toward selling their homes. "Almost certainly due to the U.S. government shutdown and debt ceiling battle in October, sellers this quarter were most worried about the state of the U.S. economy, with 39 percent naming 'general economic conditions' as a concern about listing their home," Redfin stated in its Real-Time Seller Survey. The survey is conducted once per quarter over a one-week time period, across about 24 major metros. The number of survey respondents who say now is a good time to sell their homes fell significantly from 48 percent in the third quarter of this year to 34 percent in this quarter. Still, 45 percent said now is an "OK" time to sell their homes, and just 11 percent say now is a "bad" time to sell their homes. However, while home sellers may be worried about the economy, their concerns have not deterred their plans to sell. Seventy-eight percent of survey respondents said the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate had no bearing on their plans to sell their homes. Only 9 percent said they put off selling their home because of the shutdown and national fiscal debate. Additionally, 43 percent of survey respondents who have listed their homes for sale say they have received less buyer interest than they expected. "Perhaps sellers still base their expectations of buyer demand on the spring and summer housing frenzy," Redfin said. "They may not recognize that the market has shifted under their feet, so even stronger-than-normal autumn demand seemed like a letdown." Redfin real estate agent Paul Reid, of Riverside, California, has found a decline in buyer demand but says homes are still receiving one or two offers within their first week on the market compared to 10 previously. The biggest difference Reid noted was "buyers are more emboldened." "Some are making offers below list price and contingent on the sale of their home—and winning," he said. Regardless, 27 percent of homeowners said buyer demand met their expectations, and 34 percent said buyer demand exceeded their expectations. After concerns about the economy, the second-most cited concern for home sellers in the Redfin survey was low inventory. Thirty percent of survey respondents reported concerns about the limited number of homes available for them to purchase after they sell their current homes. The M Report | 39 se c on da r y m a r k e t Despite declining optimism, home sellers have no intention of putting off their plans. a na ly t ic s bubble, but investor demand in those markets appears to be waning, meaning rapid rates of price appreciation are likely unsustainable," Stiff said. When observing metros with populations exceeding 950,000, CoreLogic Case-Shiller found four of the five metros with the greatest annual price appreciation in the second quarter are in California. Sacramento experienced the greatest price growth—25.9 percent. Las Vegas took the No. 2 spot with prices rising 24.7 percent over the year in the second quarter. The three California markets to fill out the top five list were Oakland (23.7 percent), San Jose (21.9 percent), and Los Angeles (20.3 percent). At the other end of the spectrum, four of the five metros with the smallest price appreciation are located in the Northeast. Honolulu, Hawaii, and Edison, New Jersey, posted the smallest annual price gains in the second quarter: 1.1 percent. They were followed by Hartford, Connecticut (1.3 percent), Long Island (1.9 percent), and Newark, New Jersey (2 percent). Looking forward, CoreLogic Case-Shiller analysts expect a shift in the lineup over the next year. Only two markets are expected to post double-digit gains: Oakland, California (11.1 percent); and Baltimore (10.8 percent). Other markets with price gains anticipated in the top five through the second quarter of 2014 include Tucson, Arizona (9.5 percent); Hartford, Connecticut (9.1 percent); and Santa Ana, California (8.8 percent). Metros expected to post the smallest price gains over the next year are Miami (1.5 percent); Warren, Michigan (1.9 percent); Nashville (2 percent); Fort Lauderdale, Florida (2.2 percent); and Houston (2.7 percent). CoreLogic notes first-time and trade-up buyers are starting to increase their roles in the market, albeit slowly, while investor demand is slowing as fewer distressed homes are listed for sale.

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