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Mortgage Originations: The Good, The Bad, And the Ugly in 2014

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46 | Th e M Rep o RT o r i g i nat i o n s e r v i c i n g a na ly t i c s s e c o n da r y M a r k e t ANALYTICS The LaTesT consumer sentiment edges down Despite signs of growth, consumers aren't ready to buy the story of economic recovery. a final look at consumer sentiment for the month of July shows Ameri- can confidence in the economy softened compared to June as expectations for the rest of the year became more tempered. The University of Michigan/ Thomson Reuters Index of Consumer Sentiment finished in July at a reading of 81.8, below the 82.5 recorded in June but bet- ter than the 81.3 captured in the month's preliminary survey. The index spent the first half of the year averaging 81.9, ac- cording to UMich's Surveys of Consumers group. The headline index felt some drag from the component measuring consumers' outlook, which slipped to 71.8 from 73.5 in June even as the economic picture brightened. "Despite the recent gains in jobs and wages, consumers have yet to interpret these gains as an indica- tion that more robust growth in jobs and wages will be forthcoming in the future," said Richard Curtin, chief economist for Surveys of Consumers. "The slow and uneven pace of the recovery in jobs and in- comes during the past five years has made consumers unwilling to put much stock in favorable economic forecasts until repeatedly confirmed by positive realizations." Meanwhile, the Current Conditions Index measured 97.4 at the end of the month, up from June's 96.6. When asked to describe how their financial situation has changed, one in three households surveyed said their income had recently increased thanks to added jobs and higher wages, Surveys of Consumers reported. However, more consumers also complained about higher prices. Of equal note was an ob- served slowdown in the hous- ing market as moderating price appreciation and an uptick in inflation hinder sales. "Although a resurgent housing market has been an important factor for recoveries in the past, investments in homes are no longer expected to post strong inflation-adjusted gains," the group said. "This leaves hous- ing demand more vulnerable to even small changes in the pace of home appreciation and the inflation rate." "Despite the recent gains in jobs and wages, consumers have yet to interpret these gains as an indication that more robust growth in jobs and wages will be forthcoming in the future." — Richard Curtin, Surveys of Consumers First-time Homebuyer age to rise AS millenniAlS put off purChASing, AnAlyStS expeCt to See the mediAn Age of firSt-timerS to Come up. a s homeownership keeps slipping among young American adults, real es- tate analysts believe the makeup of first-time homebuyers could look very different through- out the next 10 years. In a quarterly survey conduct- ed by Zillow and Pulsenomics, a panel of economists, real estate experts, and market strategists agreed that the median age of first-time homebuyers is likely to keep moving up in the next decade as millennials wait until later in their lives to purchase. Among the more than 100 experts polled, 61 percent said they expect the median first-time homebuyer age to rise marginally in the coming years, reaching 32 or 33 by 2024. Another 24 percent say that figure could climb even higher, rising to 34 years or older. The typical first-time home- buyer in 2013 was 31 years old, according to the National Association of Realtors. The panel's predictions come at a time when homeownership in the United States is hovering at a near 20-year low, with the biggest declines coming among younger and early middle-aged Americans. Analysts have point- ed to student loan debts and limited job prospects as two of the biggest factors keeping down millennial homeownership, though Zillow chief economist

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