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Mortgage Originations: The Good, The Bad, And the Ugly in 2014

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Summer Starts with Rising Home Sales, Inventory RE/MAX releases its latest housing report, and the numbers look good. H ome sales in June rose 4.5 percent over the month prior, climbing closer to 2013 numbers than any other month so far this year. In its monthly National Housing Report, RE/MAX ob- served another month-to-month climb in transaction levels, mark- ing the fourth straight month of increases following a poor showing at the start of the year. All 52 surveyed metros reported monthly gains. While sales figures remain down nearly 2 percent compared to June 2013, the company says the year- over-year difference is the smallest one recorded year-to-date. "The trend may have started late, but 2014 appears to be fol- lowing a traditional seasonal sales pattern," RE/MAX said. Inventory also ticked up slight- ly for the third straight month, nudging up 0.3 percent from May. Compared to the same time last year, supply was down 4.2 percent, slightly worse than May's decline of 4.1 percent. The low level of inventory and high level of demand brought the number of days the average home was listed on the market to 62, four days fewer than in May and three days fewer than a year ago. It was the 25th con- secutive month in which the average market time came in below 90 days. Still, with sales going on at their current pace, the stock of inventory improved when measured in months, climbing to 4.1 months supply from 3.8 in May and 3.9 last year. RE/MAX considers a six-month supply to be a balanced market between buyers and sellers. "The increasing inven- tory of homes for sale is hav- ing a positive impact, despite some lingering challenges with lending standards, so the recovery remains in place," said RE/MAX CEO Margaret Kelly. "If the overall economy improves, history has shown that housing is likely to stay in line with long-standing seasonal trends." Meanwhile, home prices continued to slide up, gaining 9.6 percent over the last 12 months to a median $210,000. Of the 52 areas surveyed, RE/MAX reported higher sales prices in 41, with eight seeing double-digit increases. Housing Mixed in Otherwise Positive Beige Book The Federal Reserve admits things have slowed down on the housing front. T he Federal Reserve reported continued growth in economic activity through the United States over the past month, reinforcing recent reports that the economy is moving in a more positive direction after a dismal first quarter. The central bank's latest Beige Book report released in mid-July, shows that econom- ic activity expanded in nearly all 12 Fed districts, with New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco all reporting moderate growth. The remaining districts char- acterized their own expan- sion as modest, except for Boston and Richmond, which both noted a slightly slower pace of growth. Moving forward, most dis- tricts are optimistic in their outlook, the Fed said. Reports on real estate ac- tivity were mixed across the country, though low inven- tory and rising home prices were common themes in most districts. Boston, New York, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Dallas all reported that residential home sales remain constrained by dwindling inventory levels, though home sales in Atlanta and Kansas City accelerated at a slight to modest pace. Home sales also rose in Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Richmond. Sales softened in Boston, New York, Chicago, and St. Louis, with Chicago pinning some of the decline on rising home prices. Chicago posted double-digit annual price gains in the latest S&P/Case-Shiller report but remains among the cities with the lowest price indices as of April. In a positive turn for sup- ply, residential construction generally increased nation- wide, with only St. Louis and Minneapolis reporting declines in activity. Building challenges remain, however. Cleveland and San Francisco each reported that a shortage of vacant lots has held back both in homebuild- ing, and Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas all reported a shortage of skilled construction and craft workers. Districts were split on home lending activity. New York, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Dallas all reported growth, while Richmond, Atlanta, and Kansas City posted slight declines in demand. Credit quality was stable or improved in most areas, with Dallas and New York report- ing moderate and strong im- provement, respectively. Out of the 12 districts, only San Francisco posted a decline in credit quality. At the same time, lenders in some districts are resort- ing to riskier terms to remain competitive, with contacts in Chicago and Philadelphia expressing growing concern. 50 | Th E M R Ep o RT O R I g I naT I O n S e R v I c I n g a na ly T I c S S e c O n da R y M a R k e T ANALYTICS The laTesT

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