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February 2017 - Making Millennials Move

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TH E M R EP O RT | 11 MDWELL As the 10 year anniversary of the market crash in 2007 approaches, we examined the rebound in values in the nation's top 24 MSAs. Over the past five years the data showed a steep curve of home value ap - preciation, ranging from 54 percent to 94 percent. It's safe to say many of the bor- rowers in these MSAs have likely grown their equity through significant home value appreciation, timely mortgage payments, both of which positively impacted their LTV, making them ideal candidates for a refi. Let's take a look at a few yet unrealized refi opportunities in a small, medium, and large market. This table below shows three markets and the potential refi opportunity for neighborhood banks, at the current interest rate. The Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Arizona mar - ket, which is attractive to both the SFR investor and homeowner, presents an exceptional value at 77 percent appreciation over the last five years with 80,984 refinance opportunities. The middle of the road market of Portland-Vancouver- Hillsboro, Oregon/Washington MSA boasts a 68 percent home valuation appreciation with 57,936 localized refinance loans. The Detroit- Warren-Dearborn, Michigan MSA has seen a 60 percent home value appreciation, with 17,428 potential refinance opportunities at today's inter - est rate. Additional stats are available on other market potentials in the adjacent tables. TOP 24 MSAs BY 5 YEAR APPRECIATION Source: Arapahoe CO 18,471 $2.8 B Loudoun VA 18,186 $4.3 B Jefferson CO 17,877 $2.7 B Sarasota FL 17,854 $2.8 B Union NJ 17,264 $3.3 B Davidson TN 17,251 $2.2 B Somerset NJ 16,960 $3.2 B Brevard FL 16,903 $2.1 B Anne Arundel MD 16,870 $2.8 B New York NY 16,736 $9.1 B Denver CO 16,536 $2.6 B Virginia Beach VA 16,345 $2.5 B DeKalb GA 16,273 $2.3 B El Paso CO 16,255 $2.2 B St. Louis MO 16,039 $2.2 B Duval FL 15,971 $2.1 B Bristol MA 15,846 $2.2 B Hartford CT 15,839 $1.9 B Fresno CA 15,762 $2.1 B Pima AZ 15,762 $2.0 B New Haven CT 15,743 $2.1 B Cuyahoga OH 15,418 $1.8 B Suffolk MA 15,331 $3.1 B Erie NY 15,242 $1.7 B Prince William VA 15,135 $2.6 B A complete list of refinance opportunities, sorted by location, loan amount and LTV is available at HouseCanary.com/Refi *HouseCanary has computed the refi opportunity based on these assumptions: (1) minimum loan amount of $50,000, (2) borrower to save a minimum of $2,000 per year, (3) < 80 percent LTV, (4) not in default, (5) prospect to save on the interest expense over the life of the loan, compared to what they would have paid in interest with original financing. MSA Stockton-Lodi, CA 94% Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 92% San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 88% San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Claram, CA 81% Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 78% Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 77% Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA 76% North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 75% Cape Coral-Fort Meyers, FL 75% Boise City, ID 71% Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 71% Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 70% 11 8 7 6 5 3 4 2 1 9 10 12 13 MSA Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 69% Riverside-San Bernadino-Ontario, CA 68% Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 68% Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 67% Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 63% Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 62% Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 61% Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 60% Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 60% Austin-Round Rock, TX 57% Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 57% San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 56% 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 REFI POTENTIAL BY MSA : # 26-50 11 13 5 2 1 9 10 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 23 24 7 3 4 6 8 22 21 Source: HouseCanary.com/Refi METRO POPULATION HOME VALUE APPRECIATION NUMBER OF REFI OPPORTUNITIES Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 1,550,372 77% 80,984 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR/WA 878,078 68% 57,936 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 1,656,829 60% 17,428 SMALL, MEDIUM, LARGE REFI MARKET OPPPORTUNITIES STATE COUNTY NUMBER OF REFI OPPORTUNITIES TOTAL PRINCIPAL VALUE 5Y Appreciation 5Y Appreciation

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