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FEATURE fective to the degree that a lot of people with underwater mortgages have gotten the terms of their mortgage reduced," Guttentag says. "The bottom line is similar to refinancing: A lot of people have gotten their mortgages modified, but a lot of people who should have gotten their mortgages modified, haven't." Guttentag doesn't hold out much hope for "The modification programs have been ef- an easing of the self-employed or modification rule, especially given that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now essentially wards of the government and more susceptible to national politics. "I don't see anything that suggests that it's going to change any time soon," he says. The Long Haul S mortgage interest rates will begin climbing and refinancing will drop dramatically. How soon that will happen is anybody's guess. Guarantee Rate's Ciardelli already feels like the housing markets in Florida and California, two of the states hit hardest when the housing bubble burst, are showing signs of rebounding. "Our purchase volume is skyrocketing," ooner or later, the economy will heat up and start growing again. When it does, he says. "Real estate agents are busy again. People are buying homes." So what, if any, will be the lasting effect of this refinancing period with historically low rates? Since every recession in the past 52 years has spawned a refinancing boom, chances are, not much. If anything, the refinancing frenzy that started in 2009 will be remembered for the millions of people it didn't help. lot of people out of the market," period as far as refinancing is concerned is the tightening of qualification requirements," Guttentag says. "In all other periods, if any- thing, qualification requirements got easier as interest rates dropped. "This period of refinancing has been "The one thing that is unique about this where we were 20 years ago when we had unreasonable requirements that knocked a "We're back to — Jack M. Guttentag, professor emeritus at the Wharton School Built to Fit Your Mortgage Lending Needs All-Inclusive Mortgage Lending Solutions • Web Production Portals • Web Origination • Embedded Closing Document Production • Imaging & Electronic Document Management (EDM) consistent with all prior periods of recession- induced refinancing booms except it should have been bigger than it was because of the tightening qualification requirements." • E-Delivery to Investors • Secondary Marketing • Product & Pricing Eligibility Integration • Over 70 Interfaces in 16 Categories • Award Winning Support and Service Contact us today to learn more about how Mortgage Builder fits your needs. 800.850.8060 www.mortgagebuilder.com THE M REPORT | 35