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Regulators' New Target

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Housing Sentiment Softens The housing market loses its luster among consumers as wage growth stagnates. A nother downturn in consumer attitudes has spurred analysts at Fannie Mae to rein in their outlook for the housing market in 2015. Despite economic strides made in the last few months, the company's latest National Housing Survey found Americans' outlook toward housing deteriorated in August for a second straight month, "[suggesting] that housing activity may resume its modest recovery in 2015 after some pullback last year," analysts said. "The August National Housing Survey results lend support to our forecast that 2015 will likely not be a breakout year for hous- ing," said Doug Duncan, SVP and chief economist at Fannie Mae. Asked about their home price expectations over the next year, consumers surveyed in the company's latest poll forecast an average 2.1-per- cent growth, down from 2.3 percent in July's survey. Meanwhile, the percentage of respondents who expect prices to actually rise over the next 12 months was steady at 42 percent, while the percent- age of those expecting depre- ciation climbed to 9 percent. All in all, 64 percent of Americans surveyed said now is a good time to buy a home, matching the all-time survey low. The share of those who said now is a good time to sell also fell, dropping 5 percentage points to 38 percent. Duncan explained that the softening in consumer attitudes reflects the combi- nation of declining home af- fordability and weak income growth nationwide. "To date, this year's labor market strength has not translated into sufficient income gains to inspire con- fidence among consumers to purchase a home, even in the current favorable interest rate environment," he said. Fannie Mae plans to release the results of its third- quarter Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey later this month, revealing how weak- ening consumer sentiment toward housing is impacting mortgage demand. On the economic side, 23 percent of respondents in the August survey said their household income is substantially higher than it was a year ago, down from 28 percent in July. Fifteen percent said their income is significantly lower. Consumers' outlook is a little brighter, though: 44 percent expect their per- sonal financial situation to improve in the next year, up from 40 percent a month prior. Meanwhile, the share of respondents who said the economy is on the wrong track dropped, though it still remained high at 56 percent. Th e M Rep o RT | 49 O r i g i nAt i O n S e r v i c i n g A nA ly t i c S S e c O n dA r y m A r k e t ANALYTICS The laTesT employment trend index inches Up The Conference Board's measure suggests 'robust growth' in the fall. F ollowing a report of ongoing—albeit disappointing— employment growth in August, another indicator of labor market trends showed continued steady improvement. The Conference Board released its Employment Trends Index (ETI) for August last month, reporting a slight increase from July to a reading of 121.29. Compared to a year earlier, August's ETI was up 6.4 percent, reflecting strong gains made ear- lier this year as monthly payroll growth topped 200,000 for six straight months. "The strong increase in the Employment Trends Index in recent months signals robust job growth through the fall," said Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research at the Conference Board. Levanon added that August's lower-than- expected employment num- bers "seem to be a one-month deviation from a stronger trend." August's increase was driven by improvements in seven of the eight indicators used to calculate the index, the group reported, with the percentage of firms unable to fill positions right now contributing the most. The index was also boosted by a drop in the percentage of Americans who say jobs are currently hard to get, which fell marginally to 30.6 percent in the Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence Index. Also measured in the group's monthly report are datasets for initial jobless claims, employees hired for temporary help, and job openings—all of which are reported by the government. The one indicator not con- tributing to August's improve- ment was the government's weekly estimate of initial jobless claims, which hovered around the 300,000 mark throughout August.

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